The US observed capacity utilization rate for wind electricity was 31 percent and for solar electricity was 20 percent calculated using data from BP 2016. I assume that the wind power plant has a capacity utilization rate of 30 percent and the solar photovoltaic power plant has a capacity utilization rate of 20 percent. The annual total generation cost is the sum of annual fixed cost and annual fuel cost. Annual fixed cost is assumed to be 10 percent of the capital cost. Annual fixed cost includes interest rate assumed to be 5 percent and depreciation and maintenance cost assumed to be 5 percent of the capital cost.
Wind and solar electricity has no fuel cost. For gas-fired electricity, the technology is assumed to be advanced combined cycle. Natural gas consumption for gas-fired electricity is calculated assuming 55 percent thermal conversion efficiency or a heat rate of 6,200 British thermal units per kilowatt-hour and natural gas price is assumed to be 5 dollars per million British thermal unit in 2015, the US Henry Hub natural gas price was 2. Table 2 reports the estimated generating cost for gas-fired, wind, and solar photovoltaic electricity. Given the current technologies, gas-fired electricity costs 5.
Wind electricity costs about the same as the gas-fired electricity and solar photovoltaic electricity is about two-and-a-half times as expensive. Take the lower limit of 40 percent. Let us make some optimistic assumptions. Thus, 40 percent of the nameplate capacity can be made available for load balancing. According to Castro et al. This is consistent with the technical potential estimated above. Oil consumption includes biofuels. The adjustment factor is 0. This means that there is no direct way for comparing a solar investment to any other investment.
And this is an important disadvantage for investments in solar PV. However investment in solar technology can be seen like any other financial investment. The payback time has to be converted into a comparison rate. The simple spreadsheet below allows the conversion of the payback time into the comparison rate. The comparison rate is a term defined for home loans by the Australian Government and must be given with all domestic home loan products. However the calculation works both ways. This may sound pretty poor. According to the calculator the comparison rate or IRR is 8.
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Figure 2 shows the historical and projected US oil production from 1950 to 2050. The US cumulative oil production up to 2015 was 32 billion tons. Regression R-square is 0. Figure 5 shows the historical and projected world production of liquid fuels. Figure 6 shows the historical and projected US natural gas production from 1950 to 2050. The US cumulative natural gas production up to 2015 was 32 billion tons of oilequivalent. Figure 10 shows the historical and projected US coal production from 1950 to 2050. The US cumulative coal production up to 2015 was 75 billion tons. Figure 12 shows the historical and projected world coal production.
Nuclear Electricity World consumption of nuclear electricity was 2,577 terawatt-hours in 2015, 1. The observed capacity utilization rate for electricity generation is calculated as follows: But it recovered to about 85 percent in 2015. Nuclear electricity is converted into its thermal equivalent using the formula: Hydro, Geothermal and Biomass Electricity World consumption of hydro electricity was 3,946 terawatt-hours in 2015, 1. Wind and Solar Electricity World consumption of wind electricity was 841 terawatt-hours in 2015, 17. This section uses a simple and transparent framework that compares the wind and solar electricity generation costs with the gas-fired electricity generation cost.
The average electricity generation cost is defined as the annual total generation cost divided by the annual electricity generation. The annual electricity generation from one gigawatt of generating capacity is calculated as follows: If the calculator spreadsheet is not showing, please try with another internet browser. More calculators can be found here: But for other investments like savings accounts, real estate or term deposits, a payback time is usually not given. This means that there is no direct way for comparing a solar investment to any other investment. And this is an important disadvantage for investments in solar PV. However investment in solar technology can be seen like any other financial investment.
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